Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 20.016534 21.091408 22.215234 23.481798 24.874305 26.364094 28.085784
2026-02-08 18.194337 19.662188 21.264921 23.158572 25.353087 27.839332 30.903094
2026-02-15 17.076944 18.761531 20.654524 22.964491 25.743027 29.026218 33.276460
2026-02-22 16.559364 18.453964 20.637075 23.379143 26.792291 30.989529 36.693208
2026-03-01 15.843590 17.843624 20.191896 23.207111 27.061836 31.956117 38.879974
2026-03-08 15.065124 17.102532 19.529057 22.698151 26.835450 32.224997 40.106623
2026-03-15 14.478576 16.557772 19.067047 22.396950 26.831984 32.755168 41.708076
2026-03-22 14.270826 16.461982 19.148197 22.781956 27.741365 34.573937 45.348253
2026-03-29 14.020602 16.295764 19.123633 23.014862 28.444361 36.142684 48.782606
2026-04-05 13.757181 16.097330 19.042060 23.157291 29.017416 37.553784 52.128362
2026-04-12 13.399606 15.761500 18.762542 23.008343 29.154284 38.307363 54.457336
2026-04-19 13.002004 15.358353 18.375799 22.687618 29.013596 38.610029 56.022976
2026-04-26 12.617995 14.967857 18.000726 22.378677 28.890761 38.960388 57.782548
2026-05-03 12.261599 14.602732 17.646716 22.083006 28.769298 39.301746 59.576012
2026-05-10 11.970649 14.314146 17.384415 21.903645 28.809376 39.903469 61.950158
2026-05-17 11.895469 14.309568 17.508097 22.286504 29.742087 42.087993 67.895294
2026-05-24 11.641064 14.054412 17.273914 22.127708 29.799738 42.750091 70.729149
2026-05-31 11.296853 13.667892 16.843715 21.657542 29.325392 42.419080 71.286817
2026-06-07 11.032426 13.383573 16.548704 21.379038 29.148922 42.614538 73.095793
2026-06-14 10.985221 13.394675 16.670040 21.734997 30.040380 44.864644 80.287239
2026-06-21 10.896078 13.344357 16.700502 21.950177 30.705210 46.750842 87.074012
2026-06-28 10.785771 13.260873 16.679260 22.081710 31.231246 48.416046 93.743875
2026-07-05 10.601294 13.068495 16.493307 21.944156 31.274098 49.100823 97.791241